August 17th, 2014

Hungry snail!

West Point - Monrovia... the biggest slum in West Africa - Has Ebola.

There is talk of entirely quarantining West-Point. No one in, and no one out.

If that happens, what are West-Point's citizens chances?

One guy goes for a look around:

Looking at that, I'd say not good at all...

Here's a quick picture:
Hungry snail!

EBOLA: West-Point...... to Monrovia: Pop 900,000

West-Point - the new Ebola clinic destroyed, the bedding looted. The sick run away.

The bedding IS INFECTIOUS. The looters have taken it back to West-Point.

The environment at West-Point... there's NO sanitation, people defecate in the street, and on the beach.

Here's a part of a documentary:

Officials are discussing quarantining West-Point.

This will be relatively easy to it's a little like Manhattan island:

Whether they can feed that population is another matter. 75,000 starving people, and Ebola, it's going to be a disaster this month.

If people panic and overwhelm the Army (for that is what it will take) - they will be running to Monrovia : just a few minutes run. -

"Monrovia: The city is governed as a metropolitan city called Greater Monrovia District, which had a population of 970,824 as of the 2008 census, containing 29% of the total population of Liberia and is the country's most populous city."

People in Monrovia can fly internationally.

The situation is going from worse to terrible... hopefully it won't spread to South Africa - because from there - the rest of the world WILL be infected.

Liberia has an R0 of around SIX. It's gone crazy.

Ebola in first world countries will have an R0 of around 2. (Fomites on public transport being the biggest spreader)

900,000 potential infections in the next few months.... jeez, I'm a little worried.

WATCH THE NEWS - if the West-Point quarantine breaks down, it will be hell there.

Here's my little spreadsheet to keep track of the numbers: